A recent analyst note from UBS indicates that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is potentially developing a foldable iPhone, possibly launching as early as 2026. This aligns with reports from The Information, suggesting a clamshell design similar to the Samsung (KS:005930) Galaxy Z Flip.

Consumer Preference and Market Trends

However, UBS analysis reveals a low consumer appetite for foldable devices. A UBS Evidence Lab survey of approximately 7,500 smartphone users identified broken phones, deteriorating battery life, and slow performance as primary upgrade motivators. Notably, “foldable” functionality received a negative net score (-22%), while battery life (83%), price (79%), and network quality (78%) were cited as key drivers.

Foldable Market Share Remains Limited

Despite Samsung being the most active vendor in the foldable market, sales remain a small fraction of the overall smartphone market. UBS estimates the global smartphone market at 1.2 billion units over the trailing 12 months, with Samsung selling only around 8 million foldable devices, primarily the Galaxy Z Flip 5. This equates to less than 0.7% of the total market, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for the form factor. Other vendors like Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have also seen limited success with their Pixel Fold, selling approximately 250,000 units.

UBS’s analysis suggests that foldable iPhones are unlikely to significantly drive iPhone demand. Consumer preference for foldable functionality remains low, with battery life, price, and network quality cited as key factors influencing purchase decisions. Despite Samsung’s dominance in the foldable market, sales remain a small fraction of the overall smartphone market, indicating limited consumer interest. This raises questions about the potential success of a foldable iPhone in driving significant sales growth for Apple.