iPhone 15 and 16 Shipments Forecasted to Drop by 15% in 2024

In a significant update for Apple enthusiasts and market analysts, Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities has projected a notable downturn in iPhone shipments for the upcoming iPhone 15 and 16 series in 2024. This news, pointing towards a potential 10-15% decline compared to 2023’s figures, has sparked discussions about the future trajectory of Apple’s flagship product.

Key Highlights:

• Predicted 10-15% decrease in iPhone 15 and iPhone 16 shipments in 2024.
• The decline attributed to the rise of foldable phones, Huawei’s resurgence in China, and the incorporation of generative AI in phone designs.
• Apple’s current market challenges in China, with a 30-40% drop in weekly shipments year-over-year.
• Comparison with Samsung’s 5% increase in shipments for its Galaxy S24 series.

Market Dynamics and Competition

The Competitive Landscape: Apple‘s decision to decrease shipments reflects a strategic adaptation to a rapidly evolving smartphone market. Notably, the rise of foldable smartphones and the comeback of Huawei in China pose significant challenges to Apple’s dominance. Additionally, the innovative use of generative AI in phone designs is reshaping consumer expectations and preferences.

Apple’s Position in China: China, a critical market for Apple, has seen a significant reduction in the company’s weekly shipments, dropping by 30-40% compared to the previous year. This trend, coupled with strong competition from local brands like Huawei and Xiaomi, has put pressure on Apple’s market share in the region.

iPhone 15 and 16: What to Expect

While facing these market challenges, the upcoming iPhone 15 and 16 series are anticipated to feature notable upgrades and improvements. However, the lack of significant design changes until 2025 might be influencing consumer decisions, leading to a tempered excitement compared to previous launches.

Apple’s Strategy and Market Response

1. Adjusting Shipment Volumes: In response to these challenges, Apple is strategically adjusting its shipment volumes. This move indicates a cautious approach to market demand, aiming to balance production with actual sales prospects.
2. Focus on Innovation and Ecosystem Strength: Despite the forecasted decline, Apple is known for its strong ecosystem and continuous innovation. The upcoming iPhone models are expected to showcase significant upgrades in performance, camera technology, and user experience, leveraging the robust iOS ecosystem.
3. Competitive Pricing Strategies: Apple may also need to consider more aggressive pricing strategies, especially in markets where it faces stiff competition from brands offering similar features at lower price points.

Looking Ahead: The Future of iPhone

As the smartphone market continues to evolve rapidly, Apple’s ability to adapt and innovate will be crucial. While the forecast for the iPhone 15 and 16 points to challenges ahead, it also presents opportunities for Apple to redefine its products and strategy in a highly competitive environment.

The forecasted decline in iPhone 15 and 16 shipments by Ming-Chi Kuo highlights a pivotal moment for Apple as it navigates through intensifying competition and shifting market dynamics. The rise of foldable phones, the resurgence of Huawei in China, and the integration of generative AI in smartphone designs are key factors influencing this trend. Despite these challenges, Apple’s innovation and the anticipated features of the upcoming iPhone series keep the market and consumers watchful and interested in what’s next.